Evangelical = Republican?

A look at the stats

According to the polls, some 80% of evangelicals voted for President Trump in this current election. This kind of statistic, by the way, is generally gathered via exit polls, so this is largely “self-reported” meaning that people choose the category that best describes them.

From PRRI analysis which you can read here.

As you can see, white evangelical protestants were the most likely religious folks to vote for President Trump. The only group that actually has a more homogenous voting record in this poll is Black protestants, who went 86% for Harris. What is very clear, though, is that white Christians are a key demographic for Trump, and it’s not hard to find people saying that white Christians made Trump president.

I did find this second chart interesting. It’s a ten year spread showing the shift in religious affiliation from 2013 to 2023, broken down by Republican and Democrat. (If you’re a little blue-colorblind like me and can’t see much difference in those shades of blue at the bottom, they are also in order top to bottom with the key at the right.)

I won’t go into a lot of detail about it, but I find the numbers at the very top and the very bottom of particular interest.

From PRRI analysis here.

Now most likely we shouldn’t be surprised by those numbers at all, because the U.S. has been shedding Christians like crazy for decades. Look at this study that shows that *if* trends continue as they are, then Christians could fall below the 50% population threshold in the US (this is caused by a complex variety of things, including migration, falling birth rates, and shifts in religious affiliation… but the last one appears to be the main driver) by 2070.

The Southern Baptists, who are the largest evangelical denomination in the United States (okay, they don’t like being called a denomination except when they do it themselves, but whatever) has shrunk every year for nearly two decades — and given recent events, looks like they’ll be shedding more complete congregations in the next few years. This is of particular interest to me, as I recall a number of pastors in evangelical churches I attended over the years telling me that mainline protestant churches were in decline because they had walked away from the gospel, and that white evangelical churches were growing because they hadn’t.

It’s super fascinating because the Southern Baptists now have fewer members than they did at the beginning of the so-called “Conservative Resurgence” when the more fundamentalist portions of the convention started taking over seminaries and ousting merely conservative people from positions of leadership.

Sociologists, as you can imagine, are particularly interested in this phenomenon. When you have a country go from 90% Christian in 1972 to 64% by 2020, that’s a pretty astonishingly quick change.

AND if you look carefully at the chart above (U.S. Christians projected… etc.) you’ll see that the real nosedive takes place in the 1990s.

Why the 90’s?

Well, research strongly suggests that this is correlated with the invention and influence of the “Religious Right.” As Christianity became entwined with and synonymous with a political movement/party, a whole bunch of people who used to say, “Yeah, I’m a Christian” looked at the movement and said, “Uh, but I’m not that.” Obviously, this is especially true of those who hold more liberal views. If being a Christian means being a conservative, some people are simply looking at that and deciding that they can’t be or aren’t Christians and certainly aren’t evangelical.

Recently studies have shown some correlation of white people “converting” to calling themselves Christian based completely on a single factor: their support for President Trump.

And yes, there are studies showing that many people call themselves evangelical despite what their belief system is, whether or not they hold a high view of scripture or any of the other typical signifiers of evangelicalism. The main question is: am I Republican. There are Muslims who call themselves evangelical. In fact, half of Muslims who attend mosque once a week AND align with the Republican party self-identify as evangelical. (Interestingly, devout Muslims who align with the Democratic party are also more likely to call themselves evangelical, but not at the same rates).

What this appears to tell us is that the word evangelical is starting to mean “devoutly religious in some way + political” with a very heavy lean toward Republican.

See Ryan Burge’s excellent article, Why ‘evangelical’ is becoming another word for Republican.

Meanwhile, the one “denomination” that seems to be consistently growing is “non-denominational.” In fact, in the last several years President Trump has taken to calling himself a non-denominational Christian rather than a Presbyterian.

My friend Adam Ellis posted a quote this week that I’ve been thinking about a lot:

“The evangelical church in America has, to a large extent, been co-opted by an American, religious version of the kingdom of the world. We have come to trust the power of the sword more than the power of the cross. We have become intoxicated with the Constantinian, nationalistic, violent mindset of imperialistic Christendom.”

― Gregory A. Boyd, The Myth of a Christian Nation: How the Quest for Political Power Is Destroying the Church (Published in 2007)

And as we become more nationalistic, we become less Christian.

Which leads me to the conclusion that it may be time to boldly share the good news about Jesus with some evangelicals.

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The Hearts and Minds Bookstore has three books on Civil Dialogue

Lots of people in America are trying to figure out how to have conversations with each other given the extreme political chasm separating so many of us. Hearts and Minds Bookstore talks about three books that can help. You might recognize one of them if you’re a regular reader of this newsletter!

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I’m listening to CLUELESS by Beach Bunny

I love indie rock and I especially love indie rock written by teenagers and people in their twenties, because it feels like there’s a certain emotional and moral clarity to the music… it’s nearly always hitting themes about relationships, how messed up the world is, and the desire for something better.

I’m a big fan of Beach Bunny, an indie rock band that started on college break and deals with all of above plus plenty more. The band is fronted by Lili Trifilio, who keeps the band focused on upbeat, slyly funny takes on being a human in the world. She’s compassionate and insightful and has a sense of fun that permeates her work.

Beach Bunny’s latest single, CLUELESS, is a meditation on aging and growing up from a 28 year old, and I love it. I’ve listened to it twenty times or so this week, and I think you’ll love it, too!

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BRUCE, KING OF RABBITS

Bruce likes to snuggle in the winter, so most night he comes and sits in my lap for a nap.

Rabbits, by the way, often sleep with their eyes open. You can tell if they’re actually asleep when their nose stops twitching. A rabbit has to feel extremely safe to keep their eyes closed for long.

Overall, Bruce is a more affectionate guy when it’s cold outside.

We call this “seal pose.” As you can see, Bruce is feeling very safe on the living room floor when surrounded by his people.

I hope you have a wonderful week, and that your people will surround you in a way that makes you feel at ease and safe despite what may be happening in the world around you.

Peace to you!

Matt